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JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute's content profile, based on 16 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.02% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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CT-Based Deep Foundation Model for Predicting Immune Checkpoint Inhibitor-Induced Pneumonitis Risk in Lung Cancer

Muneer, A.; Showkatian, E.; Kitsel, Y.; Saad, M. B.; Sujit, S. J.; Soto, F.; Shroff, G. S.; Faiz, S. A.; Ghanbar, M. I.; Ismail, S. M.; Vokes, N. I.; Cascone, T.; Le, X.; Zhang, J.; Byers, L. A.; Jaffray, D.; Chang, J. Y.; Liao, Z.; Naing, A.; Gibbons, D. L.; Vaporciyan, A. A.; Heymach, J. V.; Suresh, K. S.; Altan, M.; Sheshadri, A.; Wu, J.

2026-04-23 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351428 medRxiv
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Background: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have revolutionized cancer therapy but can cause serious immune-related adverse events (irAEs), with pneumonitis (ICI-P) being among the most severe. Early identification of high-risk patients before ICI initiation is critical for closer monitoring, timely intervention, and improved outcomes. Purpose: To develop and validate a deep learning foundation model to predict ICI-P from baseline CT scans in patients with lung cancer. Methods: We designed the Checkpoint-Inhibitor Pneumonitis Hazard EstimatoR (CIPHER), a deep learning foundation model that combines contrastive learning with a transformer-based masked autoencoder to predict ICI-P from baseline CT scans in patients with lung cancer. Using self-supervised learning, CIPHER was pre-trained on 590,284 CT slices from 2,500 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients to capture heterogeneous lung parenchymal patterns. After pre-training, the model was fine-tuned on an internal NSCLC cohort for ICI-P risk prediction, using images from 254 patients for model development and 93 patients for internal validation. We compared CIPHER with classical radiomic models and further evaluated it on an external NSCLC cohort of 116 patients. Results: In the internal immunotherapy cohort, CIPHER consistently distinguished patients at elevated risk of ICI-P from those without the event, with AUCs ranging from 0.77 to 0.85. In head-to-head benchmarking, CIPHER achieved an AUC of 0.83, outperforming the radiomic models. In the external validation cohort, CIPHER maintained strong performance (AUC = 0.83; balanced accuracy = 81.7%), exceeding the radiomic models (DeLong p = 0.0318) and demonstrating higher specificity without sacrificing sensitivity. By contrast, the radiomic model showed high sensitivity (85.0%) but markedly lower specificity (45.8%). Confusion matrix analysis confirmed the robust classification performance of CIPHER, correctly identifying 80 of 96 non-ICI-P cases and 16 of 20 ICI-P cases. Conclusions: We developed and externally validated CIPHER for predicting future risk of ICI-P from pre-treatment CT scans. With prospective validation, CIPHER may be incorporated into routine patient management to improve outcomes.

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Weight Trajectories and Cancer Risk: A Pooled Cohort Study

Nilsson, A.; da Silva, M.; Le, H. T.; Haggstrom, C.; Wahlstrom, J.; Michaelsson, K.; Trolle Lagerros, Y.; Sandin, S.; Magnusson, P. K.; Fritz, J.; Stocks, T.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351553 medRxiv
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Excess body weight has been associated with increased cancer risk, but the role of weight change across adulthood remains unclear. We examined body weight trajectories from ages 17 to 60 and their associations with site-specific cancer incidence. Data were based on the ODDS study, a pooled, nationwide cohort study in Sweden, with data on weight spanning 1911 to 2020, and cancer follow-up through 2023. Weight trajectories were estimated with linear mixed effects models in individuals with at least three weight measurements. Cox regressions estimated hazard ratios for associations between weight trajectories and established and potentially obesity-related cancers. Fifth versus first quintile of weight change was associated with many cancers, most strongly with esophageal adenocarcinoma in men (HR 2.25; 95% CI 1.66-3.04), liver cancer in men (HR 2.67; 95% CI 2.15-3.33), endometrial cancer in women (HR 3.78; 95% CI 3.09-4.61), and pituitary tumors in both sexes (men: HR 3.13 [95% CI 2.13-4.61]; women: HR 2.13 [95% CI 1.41-3.22]). Associations varied by sex and age. Heavier weight at age 17 years and earlier obesity onset were also associated with higher cancer incidence. These findings highlight the importance of a life-course approach to weight management and support sex- and age-targeted cancer prevention strategies.

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A catalogue of missense and nonsense mutation abundances for the U.S. cancer patient population

Arun, A.; Liarakos, D.; Mendiratta, G.; McFall, T.; Hargreaves, D. C.; Wahl, G. M.; Hu, J.; Stites, E. C.

2026-04-22 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351248 medRxiv
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Widespread genomic sequencing efforts have characterized the molecular foundations of the different cancers. By combining these genomic data in a manner proportional to the population-level abundances of these different cancers, we estimate the overall abundances of each observed missense and nonsense mutation within the U.S. cancer patient population. We find BRAF V600E (5.2%) is the most common mutation in the cancer patient population, TP53 R175H (1.5%) is the most common tumor suppressor mutation, and APC R876X (0.4%) is the most common nonsense mutation. These values differ largely and significantly from what would be found in a typical pan-cancer analysis, where different cancer types are included out of proportion to population level incidence. We present the full ordered lists of population-level abundances for specific missense and nonsense mutations, and we demonstrate the value of these data by further analyzing high priority genes (e.g., TP53, KRAS, BRAF) and pathways (e.g., RTK/RAS, PI3K, and WNT/{beta}-catenin). Overall, this information is a resource that should benefit the basic science, translational, and clinical cancer research communities.

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ClonoScreen3D-CRISPRi Uncovers Genetic Modifiers of Radiation Response in Glioblastoma

Lee, S.; Husmann, A.; Li, J.; Li, C. Z.; Modi, S.; Ahmad, S.; Mackay, S.; Paul, A.; Jackson, M. R.; Chalmers, A. J.; McCarthy, N.; Gomez-Roman, N. J.; Bello, E.

2026-04-21 cancer biology 10.64898/2026.04.17.719014 medRxiv
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Background: Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most aggressive primary brain tumor in adults. Radioresistance, partly mediated by glioma stem-like cells, represents a major clinical challenge which could be overcome by the identification of the modulators of radioresistance. Existing CRISPR screens in human GBM models have largely used two-dimensional cultures with short-term viability readouts, failing to capture the long-term clonogenic behaviour underlying tumour recurrence after radiotherapy. Method: We developed ClonoScreen3D-CRISPRi, combining CRISPRi-mediated gene knockdown with three-dimensional clonogenic survival assays. Two GBM cell lines (G7 and GBML20), differing in MGMT promoter methylation status, were engineered to express the KRAB-dCas9 editor. Nine candidate radiosensitivity modifiers, selected through transcriptomic analysis, pharmacological studies, and literature review, were examined in both lines. Target validation was performed using full radiation dose-response assays and a pharmacological inhibitor. Results: The majority of candidate genes significantly altered survival fraction following irradiation in both cell lines. Knockdown of NFKB2, RELB, and CDK9 produced the most potent radiosensitization, with sensitizer enhancement ratios of 1.39-1.70 in validation studies, exceeding those of established radiosensitizers including PARP and ATM inhibitors. Notably, knockdown of these genes induced no significant cytotoxicity in the absence of radiation. Pharmacological validation using an IKK inhibitor confirmed these findings, implicating non-canonical NF-{kappa}{beta} signalling and CDK9-dependent transcriptional elongation as critical adaptive mechanisms in GBM radioresistance. Conclusions: ClonoScreen3D-CRISPRi is a scalable, physiologically relevant platform for identifying genetic modifiers of radioresistance. The non-canonical NF-{kappa}{beta} pathway and CDK9 represent promising radiosensitizing targets, and larger screens could enable systematic prioritisation of candidates for clinical translation.

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Semaglutide is associated with improved breast cancer survival, lower metastatic burden, and a dose-survival relationship uncoupled from weight-loss magnitude

Murugadoss, K.; Venkatakrishnan, A. J.; Soundararajan, V.

2026-04-24 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351609 medRxiv
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Metabolic dysfunction is increasingly recognized as a risk factor for poor outcomes in breast cancer, but whether incretin-based therapies confer survival benefit beyond weight loss remains unresolved. Using a federated electronic health record platform spanning nearly 29 million patients, we evaluated breast cancer survival after semaglutide and tirzepatide initiation in routine care. In 1:1 propensity-matched pooled-comparator analyses, semaglutide was associated with improved overall survival versus metformin, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor, and dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP4) inhibitor users, with 54 deaths among 2,433 semaglutide users (2.2%) versus 395 deaths among 2,433 comparators (16.2%) over 24 months (log-rank P < 0.001). Tirzepatide showed a favorable survival association relative to pooled anti-diabetic comparators that did not meet statistical significance (P = 0.24), with 3 deaths among 220 users (1.4%) versus 64 deaths among 220 comparators (29.1%). In a head-to-head propensity-score-matched comparison, overall survival did not differ significantly between semaglutide and tirzepatide treated patients with pre-existing breast cancer (2,117 per arm; P = 0.12). In semaglutide-treated patients alive and observable at the 1-year landmark, higher maximum dose achieved was significantly associated with lower post-landmark mortality (P = 0.034), with an event rate of approximately 1.0% in the high-dose group (>=1.7 mg) versus approximately 4.5% in the low-dose group (0.25-1.0 mg). Despite a linear dose weight loss relationship for semaglutide, however, weight loss strata did not separate survival outcomes (global P = 0.22). In tirzepatide-treated patients alive and observable at the same landmark, neither maximum dose achieved nor weight loss strata separated post-landmark survival (P = 0.98 and P = 0.50, respectively). Structured EHR and AI-based clinical note analyses further showed significantly lower frequency of documented metastatic disease in semaglutide-treated patients relative to pooled anti-diabetic comparators, including any metastasis (7.0% versus 15.0%, rate ratio 0.5, P < 0.001), bone metastasis (1.0% versus 5.2%, rate ratio 0.2, P < 0.001), and liver, lung, or brain metastases (all P < 0.001). LLM-derived cause-of-death extraction further showed a 60% lower relative proportion of cancer-associated deaths in semaglutide-treated patients (19% of ascertainable deaths) than in matched pooled anti-diabetic comparators (47% of ascertainable deaths), with comparator deaths more often attributed to cancer progression involving metastatic breast cancer, leptomeningeal carcinomatosis, and cancer-driven organ failure. Overall, this study demonstrates that semaglutide use in patients with pre-existing breast cancer is associated with a dose correlated but weight loss independent improvement in overall survival. These findings motivate prospective trials of GLP-1 receptor agonists in breast cancer across various stages and treatment settings.

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Tumor Biology and Patterns of Recurrence in High-Grade Glioma: Implications for Radiation Target Delineation

Barve, R.; Gowda, D.; Illiayaraja, K. J.

2026-04-25 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351633 medRxiv
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Abstract: Purpose: Recurrence in high grade glioma (HGG) predominantly occurs within the high dose radiation field, raising the question of whether treatment failure reflects limitations in radiation target delineation or is driven by intrinsic tumor biology. This study evaluated recurrence patterns following standard chemoradiotherapy and their treatment implications. Material and Methods: This retrospective single center study included 41 patients with histologically confirmed HGG treated with surgery followed by radiotherapy with concurrent and adjuvant temozolomide (TMZ). Patients were followed through August 2018; those with recurrence were included in the analysis. Recurrence patterns were classified based on their spatial relationship to the 60 Gy isodose line as central, infield, marginal, or distant. Survival outcomes were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log rank test. Results: The most common pattern of recurrence was central (15 patients, 36.5%), followed by infield (11, 26.8%), distant (6, 14.6%), marginal (5, 12.1%), and multicentric (4, 9.8%). Central and in field recurrences (local failures) accounted for 26 patients (63%). Median overall survival (OS) was 27 months, and median progression-free survival (PFS) was 12 months. Survival differed significantly by recurrence pattern (log-rank p = 0.018), with marginal recurrence associated with more favorable outcomes. Conclusion: The predominance of central and infield recurrences within the high-dose region suggests that treatment failure in HGG is not solely explained by inadequate target delineation and may also be driven, in part, by intrinsic tumor biology, including radioresistant subpopulations and tumor heterogeneity. Future strategies may benefit from incorporating biologically guided approaches alongside optimization of radiation treatment parameters.

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Novel Genetic Risk Loci for Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Identified in a Genome-wide Study of African Ancestry Individuals

Vergara, C.; Ni, Z.; Zhong, J.; McKean, D.; Connelly, K. E.; Antwi, S. O.; Arslan, A. A.; Bracci, P. M.; Du, M.; Gallinger, S.; Genkinger, J.; Haiman, C. A.; Hassan, M.; Hung, R. J.; Huff, C.; Kooperberg, C.; Kastrinos, F.; LeMarchand, L.; Lee, W.; Lynch, S. M.; Moore, S. C.; Oberg, A. L.; Park, M. A.; Permuth, J. B.; Risch, H. A.; Scheet, P.; Schwartz, A.; Shu, X.-O.; Stolzenberg-Solomon, R. Z.; Wolpin, B. M.; Zheng, W.; Albanes, D.; Andreotti, G.; Bamlet, W. R.; Beane-Freeman, L.; Berndt, S. I.; Brennan, P.; Buring, J. E.; Cabrera-Castro, N.; Campa, D.; Canzian, F.; Chanock, S. J.; Chen, Y.;

2026-04-22 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351329 medRxiv
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Pancreatic cancer disproportionately affects Black individuals in the United States, but they have limited representation in genetic studies of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). To address this gap, we performed admixture mapping and genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) in genetically inferred African ancestry individuals (1,030 cases and 889 controls). Admixture mapping identified three regions with a significantly higher proportion of African ancestry in cases compared to controls (5q33.3, 10p1, 22q12.3). GWAS identified a genome-wide significant association at 5p15.33 (CLPTM1L, rs383009:T>C, T Allele Frequency=0.51, OR:1.45, P value=1.24x10-8), a locus previously associated with PDAC. Known loci at 5p15.33, 7q32.3, 8q24.21 and 7q25.1 also replicated (P value <0.01). Multi-ancestral fine-mapping identified two potential causal SNPs (rs3830069 and rs2735940) at 5p15.33. Collectively these findings identified novel PDAC risk loci and expanded our understanding of this deadly cancer in underrepresented populations, emphasizing the multifactorial nature of PDAC risk including inherited genetic and non-genetic factors. Statement of SignificanceTo understand how genetic variation contributes to PDAC risk in Black people in North American, we studied individuals of genetically-inferred African ancestry. We identified novel risk loci and differences in the contribution of known loci. This demonstrates that ancestry-informed genetic analyses improve our understanding of PDAC risk and enhances discovery.

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Histology-Derived Signatures Predict Recurrence Risk and Chemotherapy Benefit in Randomized Trials of Early Breast Cancer

Howard, F. M.; Li, A.; Kochanny, S.; Sullivan, M.; Flores, E. M.; Dolezal, J.; Khramtsova, G.; Hassan, S.; Medenwald, R.; Saha, P.; Fan, C.; McCart, L.; Watson, M.; Teras, L. R.; Bodelon, C.; Patel, A. V.; Symmans, W. F.; Partridge, A.; Carey, L.; Olopade, O. I.; Stover, D.; Perou, C.; Yao, K.; Pearson, A. T.; Huo, D.

2026-04-24 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351499 medRxiv
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Purpose: To test whether histology-derived gene-expression signatures from routine hematoxylin and eosin slides are prognostic for recurrence and predictive of chemotherapy benefit in early breast cancer. Methods: We conducted a multi-cohort study including CALGB 9344 (anthracycline +/- paclitaxel), CALGB 9741 (standard vs dose-dense chemotherapy), a pooled Chicago real-world cohort, and the American Cancer Society (ACS) Cancer Prevention Studies-II and -3. Whole-slide images were processed with a previously described pipeline to generate 61 histology-derived signatures per patient. The primary endpoint was distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI), except in ACS, where breast cancer-specific survival was used. Secondary endpoints include distant recurrence-free survival (DRFS) and overall survival. The most prognostic signature in CALGB 9344, selected by Harrell's C-index, was evaluated in additional cohorts. Signature-treatment interaction was assessed by likelihood-ratio tests. Multivariable Cox models incorporating age, tumor size, nodal status, estrogen/progesterone receptor status, and signature were fit in CALGB 9344 to improve risk stratification. Results: A total of 7,170 patients were included across four cohorts. The top histology-derived signature in CALGB 9344 showed strong prognostic performance for 5-year DRFI (C-index 0.63) and performed well across validation cohorts (C-index 0.60, 0.70, and 0.62 in CALGB 9741, Chicago, and ACS, respectively). The strongest predictive signal for treatment benefit was observed for DRFS. High-risk cases identified by the signature demonstrated greater benefit from taxane in CALGB 9344 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.76 for DRFS, 95% CI 0.66-0.88; interaction p=0.028), from dose-dense chemotherapy in CALGB 9741 (aHR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56-0.85; interaction p=0.039), and differential chemotherapy benefit in the Chicago cohort (aHR 0.84, 95% CI 0.59-1.21; interaction p=0.009). Combined clinical-histology models improved risk stratification and identified low-risk groups with a 2%-10% risk of distant recurrence or breast cancer death. Conclusion: Histology-derived signatures from H&E images are broadly prognostic and, unlike clinical factors, may predict chemotherapy benefit.

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Impact of surveillance colonoscopy on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality in Lynch syndrome - a national observational cohort study of patients in the English NHS 2010-2022

Huntley, C.; Loong, L.; Mallinson, C.; Rahman, T.; Torr, B.; Allen, S.; Allen, I.; Hassan, H.; Fru, Y. W. J.; Tataru, D.; Paley, L.; Vernon, S.; Houlston, R.; Muller, D.; Lalloo, F.; Shaw, A.; Burn, J.; Morris, E.; Tischkowitz, M.; Antoniou, A. C.; Pharoah, P. D. P.; Monahan, K.; Hardy, S.; Turnbull, C.

2026-04-22 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.16.26351020 medRxiv
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BackgroundLynch syndrome (LS) is a cancer susceptibility syndrome caused by germline pathogenic variants in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes. Due to increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), enhanced colonoscopic surveillance is recommended for heterozygote MMR-carriers. ObjectiveUsing a registry of English LS patients linked to digital National Health Service records, we aimed to assess adherence of MMR-carriers to national surveillance guidelines, and to determine the impact of surveillance on CRC incidence and mortality. DesignWe described the frequency of colonoscopies in 4,732 MMR-carriers and used logistic regression to determine predictors of surveillance adherence. For MMR-carriers with a record of surveillance and those without, we: estimated age-specific annual CRC incidence rates (AS-AIRs) and cumulative lifetime risks, assessed for stage-shift by comparing CRC stage distributions and stage-specific AS-AIRs, and estimated risks of death from CRC and any cause using Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox Proportional Hazards regression. ResultsSurveillance at a mean interval of [&le;] 3 years (n=3028) was associated with a decrease in CRC-specific and all-cause mortality, without an associated change in total CRC incidence, even after multivariate adjustment. No strong evidence of stage-shift was observed. Colonoscopic surveillance at a mean interval of [&le;] 2 years (n=1569) was associated with an increase in total CRC incidence. Incidence of early-stage cancers was also higher, with no corresponding decrease in late-stage cancers, which may reflect the short follow-up period or the impact of overdiagnosis. ConclusionThe observed reduction in all-cause mortality amongst regularly-surveilled MMR-carriers may indicate an impact of surveillance on CRC-specific mortality, though in the context of a non-randomised study likely reflects the influence of selection bias. KEY MESSAGES OF ARTICLEO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSRegular surveillance colonoscopy is recommended in Lynch syndrome, though evidence to support this remains mixed. We searched PubMed for articles published from inception to 01/05/2024 using the terms "Lynch syndrome", "HNPCC", "colonoscopy", "sigmoidoscopy", "surveillance", and "screening". We found one controlled trial and several small analytical studies dating from the early 2000s which compared surveilled and non-surveilled populations and found surveillance to be associated with reduced colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and improved survival. More recent longitudinal observational studies, most without comparator groups, found a high incidence of CRC in LS populations despite being resident in countries where surveillance was recommended. A small number of studies directly assessed time since last colonoscopy against CRC incidence and stage with mixed findings. Finally, cross-sectional comparisons between countries of CRC incidence rates and surveillance interval recommendations found no relationship between the two1,2. What this study addsHere, we conduct an observational cohort study on a large national cohort of MMR germline pathogenic variant (GPV) carriers (MMR-carriers) in England (n=4,732), comparing CRC incidence and mortality in individuals with a record of regular surveillance to those without. Through linkage of the English National Lynch Syndrome Registry to Hospital Episodes Statistics data, we are uniquely able to study a comprehensive national population of MMR-carriers and identify the dates on which colonoscopies were undertaken over time, allowing assessment of adherence to national surveillance guidelines and the impact this has on CRC outcomes. Notably, receipt of regular colonoscopy was strongly associated with deprivation as well as ethnicity. The results show that regular surveillance at an average interval of 3 years (or less) is not associated with a reduction in CRC incidence when compared to less frequent surveillance, but an apparent decrease in both CRC-specific and overall mortality is observed, even after adjustment for confounding variables. Conversely, regular surveillance at an average interval of 2 years (or less) is associated with an increase in CRC incidence when compared to less frequent surveillance, which may suggest increased diagnosis of early-stage cancers or, due to the absence of a reduction in late-stage cancers, overdiagnosis. The observed impact of surveillance on overall mortality may demonstrate the impact of surveillance on CRC-specific mortality, or, in the context of an observational (non-randomised) study, indicate that the results are subject to selection bias. How this study might affect research, practice, or policyEvidence for the benefit of surveillance colonoscopy remains mixed. Whilst polypectomy would be anticipated to prevent CRC development (thus reducing CRC incidence), several studies have observed increased frequency of CRCs in MMR-carriers undergoing frequent surveillance colonoscopy, which may reflect overdiagnosis. The selection bias inherent to observational studies of surveillance renders mortality outcomes challenging to interpret. Randomised controlled trials of colonoscopic surveillance in MMR-carriers are required for effectiveness of this intervention to be accurately assessed. Given ethical and feasibility challenges, randomised controlled trials might be complemented by quasi-experimental designs using advanced observational methods for assessing effectiveness.

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Comparing Gleason Pattern 4 Measurement Approaches on Prostate Biopsy Using Machine Learning: A Proof-of-Principle Study

Buzoianu, M. M.; Yu, R.; Assel, M.; Bozkurt, A.; Aghdam, H.; Fine, S.; Vickers, A.

2026-04-24 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351615 medRxiv
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Objective: To demonstrate the proof of principle that machine learning (ML) can be used to quantify Gleason Pattern (GP) 4 on digitized biopsy slides using multiple measurement approaches, allowing direct comparison of their prognostic performance. Methods: We assembled a convenience sample of 726 patients with grade group 2-4 prostate cancer on systematic biopsy who underwent radical prostatectomy between 2014 and 2023. Digitized biopsy slides were analyzed using a machine-learning algorithm (PAIGE-AI) to quantify GP4 using multiple measurement approaches, particularly with respect to how gaps between cancer foci (interfocal stroma) were handled. GP4 extent was quantified using linear measurements or a pixel-based area metric. Discrimination of each GP4 quantification approach, along with Grade Group (GG), was assessed for adverse radical prostatectomy pathology and biochemical recurrence. Results: We identified 15 different quantification approaches and observed differences between their discrimination. The highest discrimination was in the pixel-counting method (AUC 0.648). GP4 quantification outperformed GG for predicting adverse pathology (AUC 0.627 vs 0.608). Amount of GP3 was non-predictive once GP4 was known. These findings were consistent for BCR. Conclusions: We were able to measure slides using 15 distinct measurement approaches and replicated prior findings using ML to quantify GP4. Our findings support the use of ML as a research tool to compare different GP4 quantification approaches. We intend to use our method on larger cohorts to determine with which measurement approach best predicts oncologic outcome.

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Phase 1a Evaluation of LP-184 in Recurrent Glioblastoma: Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Translational Optimization of CNS Exposure

Schreck, K.; Lal, B.; Zhou, J.; Lopez Bertoni, H.; Holdhoff, M.; Ewesudo, R.; Bhatia, K.; Chamberlain, M.; Laterra, J.

2026-04-24 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351406 medRxiv
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Purpose: Limited CNS bioavailability and pharmacodynamics are obstacles to effective systemic therapies for glioblastoma. One strategy to overcome these challenges is drug combinations enhancing CNS penetration and/or tumor chemosensitivity. LP-184, a synthetic acylfulvene class alkylator, induces DNA damage and inhibits glioblastoma cell viability in pre-clinical models. LP-184 is a prodrug converted to active metabolites by intracellular prostaglandin reductase 1 (PTGR1) that is over-expressed in >70% of glioblastoma. DNA damage induced by LP-184 is MGMT agnostic and reversed by transcription-dependent NER. Patients: LP-184 was evaluated in a Phase 1a study (NCT05933265) in 63 adult patients with advanced malignancies including 16 patients with recurrent glioblastoma. All patients with glioblastoma received prior standard-of-care therapy and most had received 1 or more additional therapies before enrollment. Results: Patients with glioblastoma experienced more frequent transaminitis, Grade 1-2 nausea and a trend towards more frequent and severe thrombocytopenia compared to the non-glioblastoma cohort. Otherwise, overall toxicity profiles were similar. Clinical pharmacokinetic analysis combined with published pre-clinical intra-tumoral bioavailability data (~20% penetration) predicted that LP-184 at the recommended dose for expansion (RDE) would achieve cytotoxic levels if combined with spironolactone, a BBB permeable ERCC3 degrader and TC-NER inhibitor that sensitizes glioblastoma cells to LP-184 3-6-fold. We show that three daily doses of spironolactone deplete orthotopic glioblastoma PDX ERCC3 protein by ~ 80% and increases tumor LP-184 cytotoxicity 2-fold. Conclusions: LP-184 is well tolerated at the RDE, and we establish a clinically translatable scheme for dosing spironolactone in combination with LP-184 for a future Phase 1b clinical trial.

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Estimation of cancer cases in transgender and gender diverse people in England

Pasin, C.; Jackson, S. S.; Thynne, L.-E.; McWade, B.; Westerman, T.; Ball, R.; Kavanagh, J.; O'Callaghan, S.; Ring, K.; Orkin, C.; Berner, A. M.

2026-04-22 oncology 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351378 medRxiv
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ObjectivesTo estimate current, and 5- and 10-year projected, number of cases of cancer per year in transgender and gender diverse (TGD) people in England, overall and by tumour type, accounting for uptake of gender affirming care (GAC). DesignPopulation-based epidemiological modelling study using an age-stratified Monte Carlo simulations approach and the NORDPRED method for predictions. SettingModels estimating cancer case numbers for TGD people in England based on publicly available 2023 cancer surveillance data and survey-based 2025 GAC access, and predicted at 5 and 10 years hence. ParticipantsTGD people aged 15 years and above. Main outcome measuresPrimary cancer cases per year overall, by gender, age group, tumour type, and current and planned GAC. ResultsThe estimated TGD population size in England is 441547 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 429207- 452890). Total cases per year of cancer in TGD people is expected to be 966 (95% UI 882-1069) excluding non-melanoma skin. Most cases are expected to occur in people aged 60-64. The top 5 expected cancers in TGD people are breast (19%, n = 187, 95% UI 149-241), colorectal (12%, n = 117, 95% UI 106-129), lung (11%, n = 108, 95% UI 96-122), melanoma (7.1%, n = 69, 95% UI 64-74) and urinary (6.2%, n = 60, 95% UI 54-67). Total cases of cancer in TGD people are estimated to be 1740 (95% UI 1584-1934) in 5 years and 2258 (95% UI 2066-2507) in 10 years (excluding non-melanoma skin). If TGD people were able to access their planned level of GAC, this would reduce these figures to 1555 (95% CI 1386-1766) and 2012 (95% CI 1797-2282) respectively. ConclusionsThis study provides prediction of cancer cases in TGD people in England, supporting the planning of service provision and training. This is vital, as with increasing disclosure, and long wait times for GAC, cancer cases in TGD people are predicted to increase. Summary BoxesO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSThe annual number of cases of cancer in transgender and gender diverse (TGD) people in England is currently unknown as gender incongruence is not collected as part of the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service. Some gender-affirming care (GAC) interventions are known to modulate cancer risk. Use of testosterone and chest reconstruction for transmasculine people is known to reduce their incidence of breast cancer compared to cisgender women. Use of oestradiol alongside medical or surgical androgen suppression has been shown to reduce the incidence of prostate cancer in transfeminine people while increasing their risk of breast cancer, compared to cisgender men. What this study addsThis study found that there are likely to be approximately 966 cases of cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin) in TGD people per year in the UK. Though total annual cases of cancer in TGD people are expected to be 2258 in 10 years, improved access to gender-affirming care could reduce total cases to 2012 (a 11% reduction). These figures provide additional justification for funding to improve access to GAC via the National Health Service (NHS), as well as for training on the oncological needs of this population.

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Vaginal metabolome signatures of high-risk HPV infection trajectories in HIV-negative premenopausal women

Adebamowo, C.; Adebamowo, S. N. N.; Gbolahan, T.; Ikwueme, O.; Famooto, A.; Owoade, Y.; ACCME Research Group as part of H3Africa Consortium,

2026-04-22 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.21.26351401 medRxiv
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Persistent detection of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) is required for cervical carcinogenesis, yet the metabolic phenotype associated with distinct HPV transition states remains incompletely defined. We analyzed vaginal metabolomics data from 71 HIV-negative, non-smoking, premenopausal women without other sexually transmitted infections, grouped by three-visit HPV trajectories: persistent negative (NNN, n=20), late incident positivity (NNP, n=9), conversion with persistence (NPP, n=13), clearance after prior positivity (PPN, n=16), and persistent positive (PPP, n=13). After detection-based filtering, 186 putative and 64 quantitatively estimated metabolites were retained for integrated univariate, multivariate, network, pathway, and machine learning analyses. Global class separation was weak by PERMANOVA and by five-class classification, indicating that the vaginal metabolome does not reorganize broadly across all HPV states. In contrast, trajectory-specific signals were reproducible. The strongest pairwise contrast was NNP versus PPP (best cross-validated ROC AUC 0.778; permutation p=0.039). Glycolic acid was the dominant single metabolite, particularly for NNP versus PPP (Mann-Whitney p=6.96x10^-4, FDR=0.0446, AUROC=0.902; detection 88.9% versus 15.4%; combined abundance+detection FDR=0.0010). Persistent positivity was characterized by a focused uracil-high, methyl-donor/redox-low signature, including lower glycolic acid, S-adenosylmethionine, NAD+, and betaine, together with higher uracil. Ratio mining further sharpened discrimination, with uracil/S-adenosylmethionine and uracil/creatinine among the best PPP classifiers, and glucose 1-phosphate/isovaleric acid-valeric acid strongly separating NNP from NPP. These data support a model in which HPV trajectory is encoded by targeted metabolic states rather than a diffuse HPV-positive versus HPV-negative metabolomic shift.

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Racioethnic Disparities in Risk of Cardiometabolic Risk Factors and Cardiovascular Disease among Women Treated for Breast Cancer: The Pathways Heart Study

Yao, S.; Zimbalist, A.; Sheng, H.; Fiorica, P.; Cheng, R.; Medicino, L.; Omilian, A.; Zhu, Q.; Roh, J.; Laurent, C.; Lee, V.; Ergas, I.; Iribarren, C.; Rana, J.; Nguyen-Huynh, M.; Rillamas-Sun, E.; Hershman, D.; Ambrosone, C.; Kushi, L.; Greenlee, H.; Kwan, M.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351612 medRxiv
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Background: Few studies have examined racioethnic disparities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women after breast cancer treatment, who are at higher risk due to cardiotoxic cancer treatment. Methods: Based on the Pathways Heart Study of women with a history of breast cancer, this analysis examines the association between cardiometabolic risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia) and CVD events with self-reported race and ethnicity, as well as genetic similarity. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to test race and ethnicity and genetic similarity with prevalent and incident cardiometabolic risk factors and CVD events. Results: Of the 4,071 patients in this analysis, non-Hispanic Black (NHB), Asian, and Hispanic women were more likely to have prevalent and incident diabetes than non-Hispanic White (NHW) women. Analysis of genetic similarity revealed results consistent with self-reported race and ethnicity. For CVD risk, NHB women were more likely to develop heart failure and cardiomyopathy than NHW women. In contrast, Hispanic women were at lower risk of any incident CVD, serious CVD, arrhythmia, heart failure or cardiomyopathy, and ischemic heart disease, which was consistent with the associations found with Native American ancestry. Conclusions: This is the largest multi-ethnic study of disparities in CVD health in breast cancer survivors, demonstrating corroborating findings between self-reported race and ethnicity and genetic similarity. The results highlight disparities in cardiometabolic risk factors and CVD among breast cancer survivors that warrant more research and clinical attention in these distinct, high-risk populations.

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Evaluation of Neuronal Activation Thresholds for Low-Frequency Electromagnetic Exposure Using Morphologically Realistic Neuron Models

Gazquez, J.; Camacho Cadena, C.; He, W.; Yamada, E.; Altekoester, C.; Soyka, F.; Laakso, I.; Hirata, A.; Joseph, W.; Tarnaud, T.; Tanghe, E.

2026-04-21 neuroscience 10.64898/2026.04.17.719188 medRxiv
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International guidelines for low-frequency electromagnetic field exposure (LF EMF) are primarily intended to prevent substantiated adverse effects. In the frameworks, limits on internal electric fields are linked to external exposure levels through computational dosimetry. However, the relationship between internal electric fields and these adverse effects remains incompletely understood. In particular, current approaches often overlook the morphological complexity and diversity of cortical neurons, which may limit the realism of neuronal activation estimates used to support these assessments. This study evaluates LF EMF-induced neural activation using 25 morphologically realistic neuron models spanning all cortical layers, embedded within 11 detailed human head models. The internal electric fields were simulated for uniform magnetic field exposures (100 Hz-100 kHz) along the three anatomical directions, and excitation thresholds were computed using a multi-scale framework combining voxel-based dosimetry with biophysical neuron simulations. A real-world exposure scenario involving a child near an acousto-magnetic article-surveillance deactivator was also analyzed. Thresholds varied across cell type, morphology, cortical location, subject anatomy, frequency, and exposure direction, with L2/3 pyramidal, L4 basket, and L5 thick-tufted pyramidal cells showing the lowest thresholds. Despite this variability, all simulated thresholds were conservative with respect to the basic restrictions and dosimetric reference limits set by IEEE ICES and ICNIRP. The smallest margin occurred at 100 kHz, where the threshold remained a factor of 2.8 above the corresponding limit. These findings indicate that current LF EMF exposure limits remain conservative when evaluated using highly detailed, morphology-based CNS activation models.

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Fentanyl Purity and Overdose Decline: A Reexamination of Geographic Trends

Dasgupta, N.; Sibley, A. L.; Gildner, P.; Gora Combs, K.; Post, L. A.; Tobias, S.; Kral, A. H.; Pacula, R. L.

2026-04-24 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351605 medRxiv
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Drug overdose deaths in the United States reached record levels during the fentanyl era before recently declining. A plausible hypothesis is that a sudden drop in fentanyl purity beginning in 2023 caused the downturn in overdose mortality. We evaluated this hypothesis by replicating a published analysis with regional overdose data, using models that account for time trends and autocorrelation, and negative control indicators to test for spurious correlation. When fentanyl purity was rising, the national purity series did not track overdose increases in most regions and showed only a modest association in the West. When both purity and mortality later declined, the observed associations were also seen with unrelated macroeconomic indicators that shared the same time pattern. National fentanyl purity alone does not provide a sufficient explanation for recent overdose declines.

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Spatial profiling of CAR protein organization reveals in vivo remodeling during CAR-T therapy

Kashima, Y.; Makishima, K.; van Ooijen, H.; Franzen, L.; Petkov, S.; Nishikii, H.; Zenkoh, J.; Suzuki, A.; Branting, A.; Sakata-Yanagimoto, M.; Suzuki, Y.

2026-04-22 genomics 10.64898/2026.04.20.719384 medRxiv
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Chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell therapy utilizes genetically engineered patient-derived T cells to target cancer cells. Despite its clinical successes in multiple cancer types, the underlying molecular mechanisms by which molecules on CAR-T cells and surrounding cells interact with other proteins and collectively determine treatment efficacy remain elusive. Most previous studies have relied on transcriptome profiling, which does not fully reflect protein-level organization and interactions. In this study, we developed an antibody-oligonucleotide conjugate targeting the FMC63 region of CAR and integrated it into molecular pixelation (MPX). This approach enabled profiling of the dynamics of CAR molecules on cell surfaces as well as their colocalization with other proteins at the single-cell level. By applying MPX to longitudinal samples from three patients undergoing CAR-T cell therapy, we characterized the dynamic changes in CAR-associated protein organization in both pre-infusion CAR products and post-infusion peripheral blood. While CAR protein abundance and polarization showed limited variation across clinical courses, remodeling of a CAR-centered co-localization network was observed over time, including different retentions of specific molecular associations between patients with different clinical outcomes. Although derived from a limited cohort, our study identifies insights from this methodological framework beyond those gained by conventional omics analyses and offers results of a systematic investigation to predict and enhance CAR therapeutic outcomes. Key pointsO_LIMolecular pixelation was applied for chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) profiling at single-molecule and single-cell resolutions. C_LIO_LIProtein and transcriptome analyses of the CAR molecule showed dynamic remodeling during CAR-T therapy in patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma. C_LI

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Risk Factors for Antimicrobial Resistance in Cancer Patients and Cancer Survivors: An Electronic Health Record Study

Hu, F.; Wei, J.; Muller-Pebody, B.; Hope, R.; Brown, C.; Carreira, H.; Demirjian, A.; Walker, A. S.; Eyre, D. W.

2026-04-25 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.17.26351097 medRxiv
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Objectives: To identifiy risk factors for antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in seven pathogen-antimicrobial combinations in patients with cancer and cancer survivors. Methods: Using data from patients with recent or past cancer diagnostic codes in Oxfordshire, UK, we examined associations between 22 potential risk-factors and AMR in blood culture isolates, collected between 1-April-2015 and 31-March-2025. Results: Among 5,975 bacteraemias in 4,365 adults, we analysed 3,141 (52.6%) due to Enterobacterales and 620 (10.4%) due to Enterococcus faecalis/faecium in 2,752 patients. Fourteen risk-factors for antimicrobial-resistant bacteraemia were identified, varying across pathogen-antimicrobial combinations. Compared with no previous antimicrobial susceptibility test result, prior resistance to the same antibiotic in any culture in the last year was strongly associated with AMR across all pathogen-antimicrobial combinations (all p<=0.001). Prior antibiotic exposure and younger age were also positively associated with AMR in four and five combinations, respectively. Cancer type showed modest effects; lymphoid/haematopoietic malignancies were associated with higher odds (vs colorectal cancer) of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole-resistant Enterobacterales (aOR=2.07 95%CI 1.40-3.06) and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus bacteraemia (aOR=6.68, 1.21-36.91). Conclusions: Previous resistance was the greatest risk factor for bacteraemia with AMR in cancer patients and survivors, with prior antibiotic exposure and age also contributing. Lymphoid/haematopoietic malignancies increased risk of resistance to specific antimicrobials. Keywords: antimicrobial resistance, bacteraemia, cancer, risk factors

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A Multi-Omics Computational Pipeline for Systematic Discovery of Retired Self-Antigens as Cancer Vaccine Targets

Wang, V.; Deng, S.; Aguilar, R.

2026-04-22 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.04.20.26351288 medRxiv
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BackgroundThe retired antigen hypothesis, introduced by Tuohy and colleagues, proposes that tissue-specific proteins expressed conditionally during early life or reproductive stages, then silenced in normal aging tissue, represent safe and effective cancer vaccine targets when re-expressed in tumors. To date, discovery of retired antigens has relied entirely on hypothesis-driven wet lab work, limiting throughput. MethodsHere we present RADAR (Retired Antigen Discovery and Ranking), a multi-omics computational pipeline implemented on a standard server that systematically identifies retired antigen candidates. RADAR comprises four core discovery layers integrating: 1) The Genotype-Tissue Expression Portal (GTEx) normal tissue expression, 2) TCGA tumor re-expression, 3) DNA methylation, and 4) miRNA regulatory networks, each applied sequentially to identify genes exhibiting the epigenetic and post-transcriptional hallmarks of tissue-specific retirement followed by tumor re-activation. Candidate characterization is further supported by three automated modules: 1) protein-level safety screening via the Human Protein Atlas, 2) molecular subtype enrichment analysis, and 3) cross-cancer confirmation, which execute automatically when the relevant data are available for the selected cancer type. ResultsThe pipeline independently validated known targets including alpha-lactalbumin (LALBA, the basis of the Tuohy Phase 1 triple-negative breast cancer vaccine trial) and anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH), consistent with Tuohys ovarian cancer vaccine program targeting AMHR2, and rediscovered multiple known cancer-testis antigens (MAGEA1, MAGEC1, SSX1) as positive controls. Among 4,664 initial candidates derived from GTEx, the pipeline identified 20 high-confidence retired antigen candidates passing all filters. DCAF4L2, COX7B2, TEX19, and CT83 emerge as the highest-priority novel candidates for experimental validation, demonstrating zero expression in critical somatic organs, strong epigenetic silencing, and significant re-expression across multiple cancer types. ConclusionRADAR provides the first systematic computational framework for retired antigen discovery, offering a reproducible and scalable approach to expanding the cancer immunoprevention pipeline beyond individually characterized targets. The pipeline is fully reproducible, requires no specialized hardware, and is immediately extensible to additional TCGA cancer types.

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Greater intergroup bias in vaccination attitudes among physicians than the general public

Murakami, M.; Ohtake, F.

2026-04-25 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.04.23.26351641 medRxiv
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While vaccination conflicts have become apparent, physicians' attitudes toward those with differing views remain unclear. Through an online survey of 492 physicians and 5,252 members of the general public in Japan in February 2026, we investigated attitudes toward four vaccines (influenza, measles, HPV, and COVID-19). Intergroup bias was assessed as ingroup minus outgroup attitudes using a feeling thermometer. Multilevel regression examined associations with agreement group and physician status. Intergroup bias was significantly positive in both agreement and disagreement groups across all vaccine types, and was higher in the agreement group. Physicians exhibited higher intergroup bias than the general public. These findings indicate that vaccination conflict is bidirectional: physicians, often viewed as targets of hostility from vaccine-hesitant individuals, themselves exhibit greater intergroup bias toward those with opposing views. Interventions to raise physicians' awareness of their own bias, alongside communication strategies for vaccine-hesitant individuals, are needed.